Eyes on the Future: early signs of emerging and disruptive innovation from outside the EU

The European Union is at a crossroads in a rapidly evolving technological landscape. New technologies, many developed outside its borders, are both driving economic change and reshaping geopolitical power structures. So how can the EU stay competitive, while also safeguarding strategic autonomy?  

New technologies are both engines of prosperity and tools of geopolitical influence. To make informed decisions, the EU must evaluate these emerging technologies through two lenses:  

• innovation breakthroughs that cover the full readiness range, from early scientific research to market-ready applications and that include both disruptive advances that can rewrite entire industries and incremental improvements that strengthen competitiveness and resilience
• geopolitical impact, reflecting a technology’s potential to reshape global power dynamics and strategic dependencies. 

At the heart of this, is intelligent tech sovereignty: innovations that combine breakthroughs innovations with high geopolitical leverage. More than just fascinating lab experiments or niche market solutions, some of these technologies could shape the EU’s economic future and strategic autonomy. 

How can technology foresight help?  

For the EU, the challenge is to consistently identify and back these opportunities: not chasing every new idea, but betting wisely on those innovations that can secure both economic competitiveness and geopolitical resilience. That requires aligning research investments, regulatory frameworks, and industrial policy around technologies that reinforce strategic autonomy while remaining realistic about deployment.  

Four high impact and high novelty signals from outside the EU 

In our latest literature review, for the FUTURINNOV project in collaboration with the European Innovation Council (EIC), we screened research and innovation from outside the EU to spot early signs of emerging technologies and breakthrough innovations. Thirty signals were scored for impact (especially geopolitical relevance) and novelty, including both incremental and disruptive innovation. While you can explore all thirty of them in the report to give you a better idea, here are four top-rated signals shaping tomorrow’s challenges and opportunities: 

1. Greener Cooling with Elastocaloric Materials

Researchers in the US and China are focusing on elastocalorics materials, which heat up or cool down when mechanically stretched or compressed. Unlike conventional cooling technologies, they do not require harmful hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), which are major greenhouse gases.

This breakthrough could significantly reduce global energy demand and emissions from the cooling sector, a critical contributor to electricity consumption worldwide. Importantly, the shift towards greener cooling is vital for AI data centres, which generate substantial heat due to densely packed Graphics Processing Units (GPUs) and continuous operations. Did you know AI models can produce up to ten times more heat than traditional servers? 

2. A “supersolid” material could replace helium

Amid the ongoing US-China tech rivalry, reliance on helium (considered a critical raw material) poses strategic risks. Helium is essential for advanced cooling systems, including those keeping quantum computers operational at near absolute-zero temperatures where qubits retain coherence. Without reliable cooling, quantum computing would lose viability due to rapid thermal noise and decoherence. 

New “supersolid” materials being developed could replace helium, thereby easing dependence and mitigating vulnerabilities. With helium being on the EU Critical Raw Material List. highlights the strategic importance of finding alternatives. 

3. Industrial-Scale Microbiome Mining in the US

Breakthroughs in mining the “dark matter of biology” (the vast, largely unexplored microbiome) are enabling accelerated discovery of new organisms with significant applications. These microbes could lead to novel drugs, environmentally sustainable materials, and resilient crops. 

The implications stretch across public health, food security, medicine, and environmental resilience, domains central to EU interests. By developing capabilities in microbiome mining, Europe could enhance its ability to respond to global challenges such as pandemics, antimicrobial resistance, emerging pathogens, and crop failures, while reducing reliance on foreign biotech IP and supply chains. 

4. Ultra-Thin (2D) Wafers for Next-Gen Chips in China

Chinese researchers have made notable advances in producing 12-inch, one-atom thick (2D) semiconductor wafers. These ultra-thin chips operate at lower voltages, reducing energy consumption across devices, from mobile phones to large data centres.

The move to 2D semiconductor technology is also a cornerstone of China’s push for self-sufficiency in chips, a sector of critical importance to economic and strategic strength globally. Leadership in semiconductor innovation influences who can invent, scale, and regulate those foundational digital technologies that are essential for future prosperity and security. 

What this means for EU innovation 

By offering cross-cutting analysis, this report supports EU innovation funding initiatives, such as the EIC, as it sets its funding priorities and at the same time brings to the attention of EU policymakers key technological developments that are emerging in non-EU countries and may not yet be on their radar. 

• Read the full report
• To find out more about the EU Policy Lab’s technology foresight work, visit the Technology Foresight page