Democracy under pressure: four stories from Europe’s possible futures

How can democracy cope with the combined pressures of digitalisation, AI, shifting citizen expectations and changing institutions? What new paths might develop in the EU's democratic landscape and how can these imagined futures equip policymakers to act more decisively today?

These are some of the questions at the heart of a new foresight study led by the EU Policy Lab in the context of a broader project on the ‘Challenges and Opportunities for the Future of Democracy’. 

Looking for signals of change 

We worked with some 90 experts to identify some major challenges to democracy. These range from:  

1. The impact of artificial intelligence

2. Falling citizen support and engagement in democracy, and  

3. Decreasing quality and resilience of democratic institutions. 

We then explored their possible future development also considering counter dynamics to these challenges such as nine emerging issues for democracy in the EU, ranging from AI applications supporting public consultations to the increasing popularity of technocratic decision‑makers.    

Nearly 90 experts  joined our participatory workshops to explore the complex interplay between the emerging issues and the challenges that could reshape the democratic outcomes in unexpected ways. When combined, they suggest futures in which democratic outcomes could look very different from today – in some cases more inclusive and innovative, in others more fragile and contested. 

 Four futures, four “days in a life” 

From this exploration, we developed four distinct scenarios depicting plausible futures of EU democracies. They do not predict where the EU will end up, but offer structured “what if” stories that make possible futures easier to imagine and debate. Each one includes “a day in the life of” a persona, allowing readers to follow one person’s hopes, worries and daily routines in that particular future. 

1. AI-facilitated direct democracy: A future where the European Union boasts a direct democracy system where citizens are key actors in policymaking, and sophisticated AI-powered technology runs the decision-making processes.  

2. Citizen pushback: After decades of increasing big tech power and democratic backslide, citizens push back to regain agency over their lives and democracies.  

3. Technocratic government overreach: A future where the EU stands transformed by an unmistakable shift towards technocracy, where executive power functions are no longer filled by elected politicians, but by selected experts. 

4. Big tech power grab: Tech giants evolve into corporate states, wielding unprecedented power and influence. The EU has been reformed to serve the interests of these corporate giants and citizens live in a total ‘observation’ state. 

Taken together, the scenarios map out a wide spectrum of possible threats and outcomes for European democracy. Their purpose is to open the discussion, not to close it down. 

Key tensions shaping EU democracy 

Looking across the foresight scenarios, the study highlights the complex and dynamic set of recurring tensions that cut through all of them. These are not simple problems with simple solutions, but fault lines that need constant attention from policymakers.  

• The role of technology in democratic transformation: Digital tools, in particular AI, can deepen democratic participation, enhance inclusivity and representation, and empower citizens. However, without careful design and continuous human oversight, the same technologies risk algorithmic bias, mental overload, automated voting, erosion of accountability, and the commodification of citizen engagement. 
   
• Concentration of power: Power concentration, whether in technocratic executives, AI-driven systems, or corporate structures, is a key systemic risk. Robust checks and balances, institutional pluralism, and strong independent oversight bodies are non-negotiable for democratic resilience. 
   
• Balancing efficiency with citizen agency: The pursuit of governance efficiency must not come at the cost of substantive participation. Overemphasising output-based legitimacy could weaken checks and balances. Redefining ‘efficiency’ to include inclusivity and meaningful participation can lead to more robust, long-term solutions. 
   
• Emergence of alternative governance models: Theoretical alternative governance models are gaining attention. They present a whole range of – sometimes hidden – risks and opportunities that should be carefully assessed. As some of these ideas gain traction, the EU should monitor evolutions in attitudes and practices and build a deeper understanding of potential advantages and pitfalls. 
   
• Use of data in governance systems: Data-driven governance presents opportunities for enhancing democratic processes, but it comes with the risk of citizens' data being instrumentalised for corporate or state control. Safeguarding data integrity and citizen privacy is crucial to enhance rather than undermine democratic processes. 
   
• Trust in information ecosystems: The rise of personalised, algorithmic media environments and declining confidence in expert knowledge represent structural threats. Transparent, accountable information systems and governance processes are necessary to restore and maintain public confidence. 
   
• Authentic versus performative participation: A critical risk is the substitution of genuine civic engagement by theatrical or token participation. Policy design must establish clear standards for what counts as authentic participation and create feedback loops that make citizens' inputs visibly consequential. 

Why this matters for policy today 

The new foresight study shows that many democratic difficulties stem from the way these tensions interact (think of the interplay between technology, power, and citizenry), rather than from any single issue on its own.  

Measures that appear to solve one problem can create new ones elsewhere if underlying, multidimensional causes are not understood.  

For policymakers, this means working with complexity: keeping governance anchored in transparency, accountability, fairness and inclusivity, while adapting to the potential offered by innovation.  

Strategic foresight offers a way to do this. By testing policies against a range of possible futures, it helps EU leaders think beyond the short term and prepare democratic systems to remain resilient, inclusive, and responsive to the evolving needs of society.  

Read the full report here: Futures of EU democracy: a foresight exploration of challenges, opportunities and tensions  

Read more: The future of democracy: how foresight can help - EU Policy Lab