Future-oriented policymaking: an invitation to learn

“When you understand the future better, it becomes easier to see that not knowing is an invitation rather than a burden. Learning begins where certainty ends — and learning is something we, as humans, are naturally good at. The universe constantly produces novelty and change; our task is simply to recognise that uncertainty as valuable.” 

Riel Miller, former Head of Foresight and Futures Literacy, UNESCO  

The Future-Oriented Policymaking (FOP) project, in partnership with the Reform and Investment Task Force (SG REFORM), invites policymakers all over  Europe to learn new ways of approaching policymaking: be it developing a new strategy for housing, considering the future of healthcare or implementing an impact assessment for new legislation. Pressures of the moment can overshadow a long-term perspective, and yet, there are examples proving that it is possible to combine both approaches.  

As Ricardo Río, former Mayor of Braga (Portugal) and Member of the Committee of the Regions witnesses, "Cities struggle, as all the territories, in terms of facing the political cycles. And the best way to overcome that challenge to maintain a future oriented approach is, in my perspective, to create a governance model in which we define a priority, we define a strategy, and we define a plan of action that is shared and co-shared not only by the government, but also by the other stakeholders."  

Learning from frontrunners

Countries such as Finland and Singapore have long institutionalised foresight in government. More recently, efforts in Estonia, Lithuania, Malta, Italy, and Spain have also demonstrated that embedding future-proof thinking within policymaking ecosystems is possible at every level: national, regional and local.

We wanted to learn from frontrunners: What makes their approaches work? How can flagship initiatives evolve into lasting practices? According to Ricardo Río, the best way to bring this long-term view to daily policy management is to create this mindset not only at the political level, but also in the staff of the governments.  

This idea is at the core of the FOP training programme, currently under development. The programme is set up to create awareness about the need for long-term thinking in governance. It helps civil servants build forward looking capabilities and integrate them into daily policy work, making future-oriented thinking both practical and actionable.

Tools for everyday policymaking

Another FOP deliverable – a guidebook on how to institutionalise foresight and integrate it into everyday policymaking tasks - is nearly ready. It will undergo beta-testing later in spring 2026. The guidebook shares pathways on how to design more future-oriented governmental institutions, including case studies and practical tools designed to help policymakers address their specific challenges. It encourages systemic thinking, going beyond the conventional “single-problem” approach, and tackling complex issues that often span generations.

A compelling example comes from Wales, the first country in the world to establish a Future Generations Commissioner. Derek Walker the current Commissioner explains: "There's a simple logic to the legislation in that we must do the right thing for our children and our grandchildren. We can no longer be taking sticking plaster approaches and short-term solutions. We also need to be focusing on the big issues of our time.”  

So-called ‘wicked problems’ that policymakers face nowadays may make you feel frightened or even helpless, especially when combined with uncertainty. But we want to also instill the feeling of being able to thrive in that uncertainty. As Derek Walker said, "We know there are big problems facing the world and big challenges, but there are opportunities too. And this is about motivating the public sector and the other sectors within Wales to move towards a positive vision that we've put in place for our country."

Governing for the long term

At European level, this conversation is gaining momentum. In early March, the European Commission adopted the Strategy on Intergenerational Fairness echoing and supporting the goals of the UN Declaration on Future Generations. Yoka Brandt, Former Permanent Representative of the Kingdom of the Netherlands to the United Nations, who, alongside Jamaica, facilitated the development of this document, said: "Politicians, felt that focusing on future generations would shift the attention away from current generations. And politicians want to focus on the needs of the current generations. So, what we really emphasised that it was about meeting the needs of current generations in a way that safeguards the needs and interests of future generations. So, it is not a complete shift in focus." 

From research to practice

Underpinning the FOP project is a solid body of research exploring how democratic systems can learn to think and act for the long term. Alan Jacobs, Author of Governing for the Long Term: Democracy and the Politics of Investment; Head of Department and Professor of Political Science in the University of British Columbia said: "what I became most intrigued by, what I was puzzled by is that variation, like this question of why is it that elected governments sometimes mortgage the future, ignore the long-term? Live only in the present, but at other times do really hard things in order to invest in the welfare of future generations? And the question that really motivates my research is what are the conditions that allow democracies to govern for the long term? And how can we foster those conditions? How can we make it easier for policymakers to govern with foresight?"

Through its activities, the FOP project aims not only to support policymakers in daily practice but also to contribute to this evolving body of knowledge. Integrating foresight into governance is as much about evidence as it is about mindset — finding ways to make the future visible, discussable, and actionable within the constraints of policy cycles.

Looking ahead

After the summer, we will share the complete Future-Oriented Policymaking package, which will include:

• a handbook on embedding long-term thinking within government institutions and policymaking
• an online training series for public servants to build futures literacy an become agents of change
• a strengthened community by creating spaces for connection, peer learning and shared support

The Future-Oriented Policymaking project extends a simple invitation to pause, to imagine, and to learn together in uncertainty, so stay tuned! The package will be available to everyone shortly after the summer.