Europe’s policymakers are navigating a landscape where yesterday’s certainties no longer hold. Wildfires scorch southern coasts, AI transforms entire industries overnight, and shifting alliances redraw the map of global influence. In this whirlwind, the old habit of reacting to crises as they arise is no longer enough. This is where foresight comes in: not as something ‘nice to have’ or an academic exercise, but as a vital tool for building resilience, creativity, and adaptability into every layer of European public administration fabric.
Future-oriented policymaking is not about "predicting” what comes next, but an approach that equips institutions to look beyond immediate pressures, actively explore alternative futures, and develop policies that are robust, inclusive, and adaptable. This means integrating foresight, the systematic exploration of possible futures, into the everyday routines of government, from drafting legislation and conducting risk assessments to shaping long-term strategies and investments.
However, institutionalising foresight means more than new tools or frameworks – we already have many of those. It entails a cultural shift: embedding a mindset of curiosity, openness, and strategic imagination across the public sector. It also means supporting policymakers to ask “what if?” and “why not?”, to spot early signs of change, and to design policies that stand the test of time.
A new exciting project
This is why we have recently launched a new initiative to support EU Member States in embedding long-term, anticipatory thinking into decision-making at every level—national, regional, and local. Spearheaded by us, in the EU Policy Lab, in partnership with Mindset and the School of International Futures, and financed by the European Commission’s Reform and Investment Task Force (SG REFORM), the “FOP” (Future-Oriented Policymaking) project aims to:
- Build foresight capacity in public administrations, equipping officials with the skills and tools to think and act for the long term.
- Develop adaptable pathways for embedding foresight in different policymaking contexts, recognising that each Member State, ministry, and municipality faces unique challenges and opportunities.
- Foster a community of practice, connecting early adopters, sharing success stories, and creating peer networks for ongoing learning and support.
What to expect
By the end of the project, policymakers and public servants across Europe can expect a suite of resources designed to make future-oriented policymaking accessible and actionable:
- A practical Guidebook: Step-by-step guidance on how, where, and when to integrate foresight into policy processes, tailored to different roles and contexts.
- Online training modules: Flexible learning experiences to build foresight skills, available through the EU Academy
- Community-building elements: Opportunities to connect, share experiences, and co-create solutions with peers across Europe.
These outputs will of course draw from our and our partners’ relevant existing tools, based on years of foresight practice and expertise.
How can foresight help?
Mainstreaming foresight is more than preparing for the next crisis: it means supporting institutions to become more agile, resilient, and capable of shaping a better future for all Europeans. By fostering anticipatory thinking into the DNA of public administration, we can:
- Encouraging more joined-up and innovative approaches between departments and levels of government
- Enhance democratic legitimacy by involving citizens and stakeholders in imagining and shaping the future.
- Improve policy outcomes by stress-testing ideas against a range of possible futures, reducing blind spots and unintended consequences.
- Support long-term investment in areas like sustainability, digital transformation, and social cohesion by ensuring that today’s decisions create lasting value.
How can you get involved?
The success of the FOP project depends on the active participation of policymakers, practitioners, and citizens. Whether you are an experienced foresight practitioner or entirely new to the concept, we welcome your insights.
- Share your story: What has worked well in your context? What challenges have you faced? How can we make foresight more relevant to your needs? Reach out at JRC-foresight
ec [dot] europa [dot] eu (JRC-foresight[at]ec[dot]europa[dot]eu) - Join our beta testing group*: Be among the first to try out our new toolkit and training materials. Your feedback will help us refine and improve these resources for everyone.
* Places for beta testing are limited, and we are committed to working with a diverse range of partners.
Institutionalising future-oriented policymaking is a collective journey, which requires commitment, curiosity, and courage: from leaders, civil servants, and citizens alike. Let’s work together to make foresight a cornerstone of European policymaking.
Stay tuned for updates and don’t hesitate to reach out if you’d like to contribute to this exciting initiative.
Details
- Publication date
- 10 July 2025
- Author
- Joint Research Centre
- Department
- Secretariat-General
- EU Policy Lab tags
