Risks on the Horizon: Insights for a Resilient Future

In a world where the only constant is change, policymakers are faced with an accelerating pace of global shifts, uncertainty and unforeseen events that make long-term planning impossible. 

Foresight can help to explore change, envision possible futures, and get insights on how to act in anticipation of what might lie ahead. While traditional risk assessment remains an essential tool, it sometimes fails to capture the full complexity of the current and future risk landscape. To address this, we have recently added a new tool to our foresight belt that explores risks, and drivers of risks: 
 
'Risks on the Horizon' is designed to arm policymakers and risk managers with insights needed to navigate and influence the multiple potential futures that lie ahead. In an age marked by systemic polycrises such as pandemics, climate events, and technological disruption, which have cascading and severe impacts, foresight becomes more than a tool but a necessity, broadening the spectrum of approaches to risk assessment and disaster preparedness. It empowers out-of-the-box-thinking for policy decisions, fosters resilience and a forward-thinking ethos. With the help of foresight, you can go from what ‘could happen’, to what ‘should happen’. 

What risks lie ahead? 

'Risks on the Horizon' uses foresight to survey the landscape of potential future risk challenges and equip policymakers with the strategic insight to navigate them. It uncovers ten risk clusters, (and 40 discrete risks), each encompassing multiple dimensions of potential future challenges. Crucially, the study doesn't merely list these risks: it evaluates their gravity and urgency, providing a nuanced view that can inform strategic decision-making. With an innovative approach, developments that lead to the risks have also been mapped. Among the risks identified, three – environmental degradation, environmental disasters, and the loss of human autonomy – were deemed potentially existential, with far-reaching implications for humanity. 

It’s not all bad!  

But the horizon also gleams with opportunities – as the report identifies numerous prospects for innovation, leadership in sustainability, and progress towards a more inclusive society. It highlights the need for a balanced systemic approach to embrace the full spectrum of what the future holds. Learning how to act in the face of drivers of risk is a first step in risk mitigation and resilience. 

How did we get to these conclusions? 

The report's methodology is based on Horizon Scanning, a technique designed to detect early signs of future trends and developments that could have significant impacts. The impacts were explored via Futures Wheels and these insights laid the foundation for the study to identify risks. A Delphi survey involving experts from various fields assessed the scope and severity of the identified risks.  

What policymakers can do with this report

With the insights from this report in mind, policymakers can now evaluate their current and future policies against the identified risks, ensuring that their strategies are robust enough to withstand potential future challenges, whether these risks occur in isolation or converge into more complex crises. Looking at the pathways and developments that are driving risks provides clues for specific policy intervention. 

And, why not travel to a potential future – become inspired by our 'snapshots from the future; putting forward more or less plausible future scenarios in which the risks have become a reality, or on the contrary, get solved in creative ways. It makes for a mind-opening, fun and thought-provoking read. It might even challenge some assumptions. 

Finally, as this report shows, integrating foresight into the decision-making process is crucial for navigating the uncharted territories of the future. If you want to dive deeper into the world of foresight on risks, the full Risks on the Horizon report is available here:  

Risks on the Horizon

Whether you're a policy expert, a risk manager, a first responder or an interested citizen, understanding the potential risks and opportunities on the horizon is essential for shaping a resilient and prosperous future. 

But our work doesn't end here. We are now busy developing an engagement tool for policymakers to push the boundaries of foresight on risks in their specific policy making domain. Stay tuned for its launch, later this autumn!