This weekend’s UN Summit of the Future offered an unprecedented chance for world leaders to come together to forge a path for the future on peace and security, sustainable development, climate change, digital cooperation, human rights, gender, youth and future generations, and the transformation of global governance. Underpinned by the Pact for the Future, the Summit gathered a dynamic assembly of civil society, international organisations, academia, and notably, a vibrant contingent of young voices, all determined to work together to shape a better tomorrow for generations to come.
We had the honour of hosting an event on the topic of Risks on the Horizon. The panel featured Ayaka Suzuki from the UN, Lori Moore Merrell from Federal Emergency Management Agency (US), our own Thomas Hemmelgarn of the European Commission’s EU Policy Lab, Bryonie Guthrie of the World Economic Forum (WEF), and Timo Harakka of the Finnish Parliament.
Different regions, similar risks
The panel offered insights into how different parts of the world perceive and analyse risks.
The World Economic Forum’s 15th Global Risks Report was released earlier in 2024, looking into a series of risks in the next two and ten years. As Bryonie Guthrie explained, their method is survey-based asking 1,500+ leaders in business and government to share their “top threats”.
The UN’s own Global Risks Report, set to be published later this year, follows a similar methodology, combining literature reviews on risks, consultations with their various regions and a perception survey of the risks identified, with input from Member States, NGOs, UN Agencies and business representatives. The resulting report will showcase four distinct scenarios as to how these interconnected risks could play out.
The US’s Federal Emergency Management Agency described their use of forensic evidence to look at past resilience. By understanding better what worked in the past to prevent fires and fire propagation, it’s possible to improve today’s measures to “build back resiliently” and therefore avoid similar occurrences in the future.
Finland, as Timo Harakka explained, has been historically aware of the risks it is faced with and has been considering the interests and rights of future generations for decades. As he put it, “in Finland, the future already has a history”, one example being the country’s un-interrupted practice of stockpiling wheat in case of foreign invasion, which is only now starting to become a topic in other EU Member States.
Foresight was one thing they all had in common. As some of the panellists insisted, using foresight to look into the future and exploring future risks is more than just identifying doom and gloom - it is a way of identifying preferable futures and making the most of the opportunities before us.
“Falling into the trap of pessimism when thinking about future risks is easy, but as this study shows, the keys to positive futures are in our own hands.”
(JRC, Risks on the Horizon report)
What are the risks on the horizon?
In light of the new priorities set by President Von der Leyen for the European Commission, the EU Policy Lab's role in integrating preparedness across security, prosperity, and democracy is increasingly pertinent.
Apart from the scientific work done in the field of disaster risk management, the JRC brings its anticipatory foresight methods to more traditional risk assessment. This shift towards more holistic and proactive planning is essential for addressing the complex challenges the EU faces.
As the Head of the EU Policy Lab, Thomas Hemmelgarn explained, the 2024 'Risks on the Horizon' report used Horizon Scanning to identify potential future risks and opportunities. By examining weak signals and ‘signs of new’, we can gain insights about what the future could hold. Existential threats identified in this way include the loss of human power, environmental degradation and environmental disasters.
The JRC report aligns with global concerns identified by entities like the WEF and the UN, but also uncovers unique risks, such as the emergence of a lawless society due to a failure to regulate the rapidly advancing tech landscape. Nonetheless, an important dimension of the JRC’s work is that although these developments could lead to serious – even existential – risks, they also present opportunities, with the potential for positive outcomes such as the advancement of circular economy practices in response to a shrinking economy.
A key takeaway from the panel is that foresight is a valuable tool for long-term risk management and is essential for developing systemic policies to address systemic issues.
Take a closer look at the JRC report on Risks on the Horizon and stay tuned for more news of our engagement tool which you can use to extract actionable insights from the Risks report.
And the silver lining?
While change is inevitable, managing it is within our grasp and people around the globe need positive narratives more than ever, which is why the work on future risks needs actionable insights.
Whether you consider:
- the US's approach to building resilience through technology and data (AI, sensors, satellites and cameras) as well as engaging local communities in their own future by making them more prepared to the possibility of fires,
- the EU's integration of foresight in impact assessments and the development of an engagement tool for policymakers to look at their policy areas through a foresight and risks assessment lens,
- Finland’s “Committee for the Future” which is a rare occurrence in most countries in the world integrating foresight into their Government and Parliament work or
- the World Economic Forum's search for “positive tipping points” by engaging with decision makers, business leaders and academics to find the necessary levers to create ripple effects via critical interventions.
all highlighted the value of foresight in not just weathering the storm of risks but in steering the ship towards a more hopeful – and positive horizon.
In case you have missed the live event, don’t miss the recording available on the UN website.
Sources
Details
- Publication date
- 26 September 2024
- Author
- Joint Research Centre
- EU Policy Lab tags
