Beyond warnings: the crucial role of behavioural insights in disaster preparedness

Imagine standing on a floodplain as the rain begins to fall, or hearing distant sirens as wildfires approach. Or something we've all been through: hearing about new strains of a virus that may cause the next pandemic. In these moments, our response can mean the difference between safety and tragedy. Yet, despite the information overload, most of us are far less prepared for disasters than we think. Why? The answer lies not just in what we know, but in how we think.

Behavioural Insights (BI): a game changer for disaster risk resilience

Building resilient communities in the face of disasters requires more than issuing warnings or providing information. The way people perceive risks, process information, and make decisions is shaped by a complex web of psychological, social, and cultural factors. This is why the Directorate-General for European Civil Protection and Humanitarian Aid Operations (ECHO), and its Union Civil Protection Knowledge Network (UCPKN) are advocating the importance of behavioural science for disaster risk management across Europe, with input from the EU Policy Lab’s Competence Centre on Behavioural Insights (CCBI).

Why behavioural insights matter

A recent survey in four European countries (results in Dutch) shows that most people think that a disaster is quite likely in their region within the next 5 years - and that they expect to be greatly affected by it. But being aware of risks is not enough to prepare. According to Special Eurobarometer 547, a solid 65% of Europeans feel they need more information to prepare for disasters.

Traditional approaches to disaster preparedness have often relied on the assumption that if people are informed about risks, they will act to protect themselves. Yet, evidence suggests that this is rarely the case. People require knowledge about what to do, as well as the motivation to act. Even when well-informed, people may still fail to take appropriate action. This gap between knowledge and action is where behavioural insights prove invaluable.

Behavioural sciences investigate the underlying reasons why people may not prepare for disasters or respond as expected during emergencies. Factors such as optimism bias (the belief that bad things are less likely to happen to oneself), myopia (focusing on immediate possessions over long-term safety), social influences, overreliance on past experience and lack of trust or awareness can all hinder preparedness. For example, people often underestimate the risk of low-probability but high-impact events (such as disasters), leading to under-preparation. During disasters, contrary to popular belief, underreaction is a common risk, often fuelled by inaccurate threat perceptions, false narratives, or ambiguous information.

The EU Policy Lab contribution

Here at the EU Policy Lab’s Competence Centre on Behavioural Insights, we are working on the behavioural science evidence-base for practical strategies for disaster risk management. By identifying psychological and social barriers to preparedness, we are helping to design solutions that align with how people think and behave, rather than how policymakers assume they should. As far as our specific work is concerned, we have two ongoing projects on the topic:

To bridge the gap between risk awareness and real-life action by investigating the psychological and social barriers that prevent people from preparing for disasters. We are developing and testing targeted interventions such as tailored communication strategies to motivate individuals and communities to adopt critical safety behaviours. By addressing these barriers, we can make preparedness accessible, relevant, and actionable for diverse population groups.
Recognising that misinformation can spread rapidly during emergencies and undermine effective disaster response, we are examining the psychological and social dynamics (which can range from uncertainty and fear to reliance on unverified sources) that make individuals more likely to believe and act on misinformation. Our findings will help inform the creation of robust communication channels, trust-building measures, and timely, accurate information dissemination strategies. Because ultimately, by reducing the impact of misinformation, we can ensure more coordinated action and enhance community resilience during disasters.

We are also collaborating with the Dutch Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM). Rooted in work done during the COVID-19 pandemic, the RIVM has a strong track record in using behavioural insights for pandemic preparedness. Currently, their team is collecting data with a specifically developed Preparedness and Behaviour monitor across 4 Member States to better understand which factors (e.g. trust, mental and social health, conspiracy thinking, health literacy and resilience) make people prepare and feel prepared for pandemics and other disasters.

A whole-of-society approach

Disaster prevention and preparedness are not one-size-fits-all endeavours, as highlighted also in the recent Preparedness Union Strategy. Behaviours and responses vary widely depending on the type of disaster and the characteristics of affected populations.

We need an approach that recognises this diversity, advocating for tailored interventions that consider cultural values, social norms, and specific vulnerabilities. For example, seasonal labourers, youth, people facing homelessness, or migrant populations may have different levels of risk awareness, trust in authorities, or access to information. The responsibilities for different groups to be prepared span across all layers of society. Being prepared is more than having enough cans stocked, a safety shelter close by or a grab bag ready in one’s closet. It requires rethinking our organisational structures, support from governments and proactive communication.

What can we do?

As Europe faces an evolving risk landscape, integrating behavioural insights into disaster risk management becomes essential for keeping people safe going forward. By addressing the real-world factors that drive human behaviour, the Competence Centre on Behavioural Insights is helping to build more resilient, better-prepared communities across the continent.

For policymakers, practitioners, and community leaders, the message is clear: understanding and leveraging behavioural science is key to effective disaster preparedness and response. Our scientists are turning knowledge into action and helping policymakers ensure that preparedness efforts are grounded in evidence as well as impactful and inclusive.